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good day and thanks for joining us for.our webinar.focused on indiana farmland values and.cash rents the 2020 update.i'm jim minter director of the purdue.center for commercial agriculture.and joining me are my colleagues dr todd.keathy who's the associate professor.here in the department of agricultural.economics and also.occupant of the schrader endowed chair.in farmland economics.michael langemeyer who's a professor in.ag economics and the associate director.of the center for commercial agriculture.we're going to start off today by kind.of reviewing the results from the 2020.survey of farmland values that purdue's.been conducting all the way back to.1970 todd so maybe kind of fill us in a.little bit on the details on how that.survey works and.and then we'll start talking about the.results sure so it's an annual survey.we're asking about farmland market.conditions around the state.um ask a variety of farmland market.experts basically anybody whose job.touches farmland on a regular basis so.rural appraisers ag lenders some farmers.in there as well.and getting a gauge for where farmland.prices sit currently so june.when the survey is conducted but also.looking back a little bit at the.previous december.and then a little bit looking forward to.next december.okay and so you've kind of got some.details here.you look at more than just one quality.of land right yep so that's the other.thing too is we collect.uh or release information for three.qualities so top average and poor.based on their respondents belief of.long-run.uh commodity price our corn production.um but also.it also split up around the state uh so.if you go to the full report.we have buy quality but also for six.regions around the state so collections.of about 15 counties.yeah and so sometimes those regional.differences are kind of interesting but.not so much this year i think is what.you were telling us earlier yeah so i.didn't include a in here and we were.talking about it earlier and that.basically we all saw the same pattern.which was an increase.from last june to this year over net.but it rose between december or june and.december.and then fell from december to this most.recent june okay.so let's kind of look at some of the.numbers right so why don't you share.those with us.so at top quality farmland is coming in.uh a little over.8 600 around right around 8 600 which is.up about 4 and a half percent.um that's sort of the number we look at.most closely at the top.but poor actually had the highest.increase at about 6.3 percent.uh gain around the state and so michael.that's always an interesting one you and.i have talked about this a number of.times we've always been kind of.surprised at the strength that we see in.the lower quality land values here in.indiana what.what's going on there it it's hard to.tell what's really going.what's really going on there it's both.land values and cash rents probably what.surprises me the most is.is the is the high number for for poor.quality land for cash rent i mean yeah.it's lower.than the average and top but if you look.at the fundamentals.you know the the specifically the yield.per acre.of potential noise seems high yeah so.one of the things we usually talk about.is whether or not.in that poor quality land maybe we're.seeing some non-farming interest perhaps.bidding that up a little bit.there's a little bit of that and.actually you know if the economic.literature there's a lot of studies.about iowa farming iowa also.iowa state has a long history and they.always say that most of the pricing.anomalies there happen in the lower.quality.so a little bit about competing uses.also.um i think when it sells.it's often sort of sold for maybe.reasons other than just the ag.productivity so nearby neighbor or.recreational use or.or demand to maybe convert some of that.to some other use.and so they move around a lot because i.think also it's a little bit.maybe i mean this is always true with.land but each one is sort of a special.case right it's hard to get kind of a.general pattern.so when you look at sort of the general.growth and that it tends to move around.yeah so you have a little less.homogeneity of the in that poor quality.category than you do in the high quality.category that's that's a good point and.it tends to go.up a little bit more when they go up but.it also tends to go down more when they.go down so just more volatility yeah.more volatility yeah.and one of the things that i've noticed.in terms of the top you know let's go.the.the top quality is if if it follows the.fundamentals closer than the other two.and so it's not just poor i mean the.average does it does track fundamentals.better than the poor.but the top really does uh so if you've.got top quality land that's usually.usually heavily focused on the.fundamentals specifically interest rate.uh cash rent net returns to land and.those kinds of factors.and if there's ever uh the market ever.desires you know paying a premium for.quality.it definitely shakes out in the land.market that it holds its value.so todd in our in your opening comments.you kind of alluded to the fact that you.asked the survey respondents to look not.only at what happened on a year-to-year.basis but you try and break that into.two six-month components so you look at.the.last half of 2019 and then you look at.the first half of 2020. we've got those.results available now so let's take a.look at that.yeah and a big part of that is that you.know the majority of land that's sold.is sold in the winter when there aren't.crops in the ground and it's just more.of an.high activity time of sale so i think.that's why historically they've always.asked about december.but we saw as kind of a really.interesting pattern is that.prices had been rising um and if you.remember i mean we'll talk about the.history more but.the last couple years we've had sort of.downward trajectory to sort of flat in.some areas.and so we we should be kind of excited.about prices being up.um or a lot of people will be excited.about prices being up but.we saw this where most of those gains.were made in the second half of 2019.since december then prices have declined.a bit.yeah so softness and and i guess for a.lot of us maybe no big surprise given.what's.happened with respect to covet 19 the.impact that's had in agricultural prices.in general.um obviously you would think maybe some.negative impact there.so let's maybe talk about the numbers a.little bit yeah.so again i was mentioning so the first.half of the year we saw where we saw the.increases and again.talking about michael mentioned poor.quality land goes up by eight and a half.eight point seven percent uh where the.rest sort of hang around a five percent.increase.and then as we move into the uh first.half of 2020 we see a slight decline of.somewhere between one to two percent so.they're down a little bit.uh not a sort of drastic client decline.but uh.you know a lot of our respondents you.mentioned the coronavirus uh.a lot of our respondents had mentioned.you know that was one of the concerns.that they had.in terms of not just commodity prices.but also just sort of the food system in.general and.the way it changes consumption patterns.and uh you know.derived ethanol demand through people.traveling less all these have put.sort of downward pressure um and they've.had to change.a lot of places had to change how they.were doing sales um farmlands they were.you know.would have been in-person auctions of a.big crowd that those moved online.uh or went to listed sales uh and so.there's some belief that you know.maybe some of that just sort of.apprehension of what's going on in the.moment but also.is it a signal of you know how long is.this going to last.and we'll get to it later but you know.our respondents generally think that.this decline.uh although it's you know relatively.modest softening will continue through.the end of this year.yeah so what about volume did you pick.up some comments from the.respondents about the volume the sales.did people pull back and.maybe not put as much land on the market.this spring yeah for the and this has.been consistent for the last couple.years.uh the respondents saying that the we.ask how does it.how do the volume of sales compare to.the same of the year ago.and they continue to say less so last.year they said less they should have.said.less again so it's just a continuing.tightening.and that's a lot of people saying you.know supporting land prices and as.a lot of the fundamentals suggested land.prices could have come down more than.they have of last several years.people were saying well it's actually.the sort of low volume of sales keeping.that.supply tight that has helped support.prices yeah that's a good point because.most of the time we talk about the.factors that influence the demand for.farmland and we don't focus too much on.the supply coming to market and that.supply factor can have a pretty big.impact so.well let's take a look at a little.longer term view so you've got a chart.that looks at the average quality land.values both in inflation adjusted terms.and in nominal terms going back to 1970..pretty interesting chart i might say.yeah so it's.it's a uh it's nice to be able to put.you know we talk a lot about the late.70s early 80s.and we talked about a lot in this farm.place farmland prices increased.for the 20 2004 2014 or so.um and then as they've come down.comparing that and so it's nice to be.able to put it on.a uh current dollar term so we say well.how much of that is just change the.general price level.and we can see prices have come down but.they're still historically at.even in real terms controlling for any.inflation differences are still pretty.high they're still very good we're still.you know what we were sort of at the.height of the 70s late 70s in terms of.the or.then in the early 80s um in terms of.real prices.and so as you look at uh what factors.are.influencing farmland values one of the.things you ask.the respondents is you know what are the.factors that were causing you to be.optimistic or.maybe looking for land values to.increase and what are some of the.perhaps negative factors.and we've got a little bit of a summary.here it's kind of interesting to think.about the factors people were talking.about with respect to having a positive.impact on farmland values.and what they thought might have a.negative impact so maybe you want to.share some of those with us.yeah so i mean the first one there is.interest rates and that's been.the big one um you know over for sure at.least the last 10 years.but historically interest rates have.always played a big part.and when i talk to extension audiences i.often talk about.you know our intro to econ intro to.finance class we talk about the net.present value.so we think of how much something should.be worth is based on how much we can.earn by owning it but then we want to.discount the future because.uh you know we're not certain the future.will happen so that tends to.uh that discount factor or interest.rates our interest rates are very low.they've been very low for the last since.about 2007 or eight.the fed had been increasing short run.interest rates but now again.with the coronavirus we've seen a rapid.rate cut and again rates are very low.particularly when you look at you know.mortgages or long run.borrowing rates are very low and that.helps support land values by making it.easier to.capitalize or to to weight.that uh future income so the.capitalization factor is a key there the.other thing though.i think about sometimes i hear about.from from people when i speak to groups.around the state and around the nation.is.this idea that alternative investments.don't look very good.and that makes farmland maybe look a.little more attractive yeah so that's.the other thing too is if you're.you know at a place where you're looking.to make you know you have some sizeable.chunk of cash.obviously a lot of people don't want to.hold cash particularly now.so you're looking how would we invest.that you know.stock market's been so volatile it seems.like i haven't looked in a couple days.every couple days it seems to be.different than.than it was before um you know long run.you know bonds.uh other sort of investment of insurance.rates cd rates i mean cds.uh i people don't really get cds as.often as anymore because it's you know.why drive to the bank and deal with that.uh just to get that low return and so.um it's just it's still a very stable.set of returns that you can get from.owning farmland and they've been stable.for a very long time so.it's it's a safe asset um and economists.have a very def.you know precise definition of safe.asset but it basically is that we have.you know a predictable set of returns so.even though they're maybe not as high as.what you'd get from other investments.because those other investments are.drawn down.now farmland's competitive with those.plus the fact that it's stable so.yeah so the other factors people were.mentioning limited supply of land on the.market we've already mentioned that.and then uh the one that's always maybe.a little bit of a puzzler.is people almost always mention.inflation.which is uh interesting um and we were.talking about this earlier uh when we're.showing the difference between real and.nominal.we really haven't had much inflation in.the united states or here in the corn.belt.in a very long time over the course of.decades.people are very concerned about.inflationary pressures i know there are.a lot of folks.i've also heard from a lot of uh people.particularly uh.central bankers concerned about.deflationary pressure.um but you know farmland is considered a.hedge against inflation.it anything that produces commodities i.mean.inflation basically means the price of.the things we buy are going up.across the board so whenever you produce.those things that.are in everything we buy that tends to.be good with.inflation i'm a little bit curious what.our respondents mean by.inflation if they if they think this is.helping support the land values that's.why we're increasing.um it's impacting interest rates somehow.yeah it's it's sort of puzzling um.but they they seem to they seem to care.and you know.you we were talking about this earlier.and and the idea for.a long time 60s 70s especially was this.idea that as inflation was ramping up.you know that was supporting land values.and and you had the chance perhaps of.having an asset that might increase more.rapidly than the rate of inflation.but as you point out that's a little bit.of a historical remnant.yeah i think so i mean i mean obviously.we're.we're biased based on our own experience.and participating in the economy right.so.as a young person i think i'm biased by.although i went bald when i was very.young.maybe don't look as young for the.viewers uh but i.you know that we have a very low fact.that you are young yeah.we have very low inflation we've had.virtually my entire lifetime.um and so it's really hard to.disentangle like how much.is it that that that we think of now is.the anomaly of like.inflation can't stay this low forever.this is a weird thing we should have.more inflation.versus well how much was that high.inflationary period like particularly in.the 70s.how much was that the anomaly you know.and i.i mentioned this a lot when i talked to.my students but when janet yellen was in.charge of the fed in her last.big speech she gave to the fed economist.was saying.that we it's a real mystery what's going.on with inflation to come.that's what economists need to spend.time trying to figure out is where is.the inflation.all of the models that the fed would.look at have been predicting inflation.that's of course one of their mandates.is to keep inflation at a manageable.rate.um and it's just not there so i it's a.puzzle i wish i knew more.yeah but it shows up every year on the.survey which is kind of interesting.so on the negative side michael maybe.some things that you've been focusing on.when you work on some of the budgets.yeah certainly the low net returns and.and that's consistent they.they break this out into crop prices.livestock prices and net income actually.on the survey but that's essentially one.item in my mind low net returns and.that's certainly a negative influence.the poor liquidity was actually.mentioned in the survey.but what we got to think about got to.think about that a little bit.uh there's a lot of difference in.liquidity among farms.and so when you look at when you look at.the differences in liquidity among farms.yeah the average is low.but there's still a a a fairly healthy.percentage out there that have really.strong liquidity.and so it's a it's a thin market and so.all it takes is a few people.that have decent liquidity and so i.don't think that's as big as factor.as the low net returns but i'd like to.get uh.the opinion of both of you on which one.of these which side here dominates.i really think the positives right now.outweigh.the negatives that doesn't mean we're.going to see double-digit increases in.farmland values by any means.but i think there's certainly enough on.the positive side here.to suggest stable to slightly higher.land prices.even with those low net returns we're.going to talk about what the survey.responded said and maybe we'll come back.and talk to that but you know.when i look at the positive side of that.uh slide which says low interest rates.low returns and alternative investments.and limited supply land the market to.the extent that those three remain true.that's going to be pretty supportive of.land values either staying constant or.maybe.maybe a little bit higher i tend to.think sort of.uh kind of staying sort of where we're.at i.i think we're in a place where you know.i can see prices sort of going up or.down by one or two percent.um but anything more than that would.surprise me either way which.averages out to about zero uh so i think.it'll hold relatively flat.it'll be interesting to see also if if.what i think would be.what i think is most likely is that.we'll start to see more.divergence across quality classes and.locations so.we mentioned already about how the.survey this year the respondents across.quality quality bands and locations all.held sort of the same pattern there are.some that went.went up higher and fell farther but but.they all held that sort of net.gain except for one okay one instance of.a single quality band in one part of the.state.um i think we'll start to see more of.that kind of.potentially coming uh fraying apart a.little bit and seeing more heterogeneity.and pricing movements.um particularly as you know if the.corona depending on how long.the covid pandemic continues and how.that shakes out through the economy.i think that's where we want to see is.that it'll be harder to say.what's going to happen everywhere.statewide average i'd say.i'm i'm predicting sort of yeah close to.zero.change and i and i would tend to agree.with that stable to maybe slightly up.but anyway let's see what the survey.respondents had to say.yeah so they actually are predicting to.continue the decline so here we show the.what the actual the difference between.the actual december and june of this.year.and then between what they said of june.this year and what they're projecting.for.uh this coming december and they all.sort of show.a slightly more amplified decline than.what we saw the previous six months.but not by a large degree so somewhere.between that sort of one to.three percent decline in the coming six.months so they uh.the resurvey respondents in the.aggregate anyway tend to lean towards.that negative column that we presented.on.the factors influencing land values in.the in the future right yeah well.you know uh depending on what you asked.me about in june this year.uh i was probably pretty negative on.most things uh.so it's probably not all too surprising.that we see you know.suggested or believed it'll keep.declining that's a good point michael.you and i.conduct the ag economy barometer survey.every month and one of the questions we.pretty routinely ask is ask people their.five-year.outlook on farmland values and it does.bounce around from month to month.so it's not you're right it's not.constant right so.and also the the 12-month question.bounces around a little bit and.and people were more negative back in.that may.june time frame compared to the july.economy barometer index particularly.yeah that's right so.good point all right let's take a look.at some information you've kind of.looked at from a longer term perspective.because one of the things that's kind of.interesting is to think about farmland.as an investment over time so take a.look here michael okay let me explain.what we've got here because this is kind.of a busy slide i apologize for that.but the blue line farmland price to cash.rent is exactly as the name suggests.but keep in mind this is five year.averages this is not a single year.we're looking at five year averages uh.you know farmland price.uh accounts each point on that slide for.each year.represents a five year average which is.moving the farmland price is the current.but.but the the cash rent is a five average.and that's very important.to note here the same with the farmland.price and net return to land.that's a five-year average of net return.to land and the way to think about that.is.people don't necessarily use one year of.net returns.to make cash rent decisions or more.importantly farmland prices and so we're.using a little longer.uh term uh you know time frame there to.look at cash rent and that return to.land.the fact that the farmland price and net.return to land is.higher and has been for the last four.years.than the farmland price to cash rent.ratio.suggests that people think that net.returns.uh in the in the future are going to be.higher than what they've been the last.five years.uh so some optimism so off some optimism.compared to where we've been the last.five years.that's the only way i can really explain.this chart.yeah also another thing to point out.here is both of the both of these ratios.are fairly high.uh compared to what they've been.starting in 1960 that's when we had.the first data here to get that first.data point in 1965.both of them were relatively high that's.where that second part of my title comes.in.and historically low interest rates and.so as long as that ratio is relatively.high the only way you can really.justify that from a fundamental.standpoint is people think interest.rates are going to stay low and i would.concur.with them that they're probably going to.stay low but the main thing about this.chart is.is the the the returns we've experienced.the last few years people are more.optimistic than that.otherwise they would not bid cash rents.up as.as much as they have and i guess maybe.an alternative perspective on that.todd would be that maybe the more.optimistic about farmland returns.or maybe the more pessimistic about.alternative investments.yes possible i think that's a key factor.when i.when i visit with people that are.investing in farmland one of the things.that always comes up is.what are the alternatives right and i.think that's weighed pretty heavily on.people's decision-making uh process here.so you've taken a look at the 10-year as.well this looks at 10 years of cash rent.and 10 years of net return to land again.the farmland prices.is the current price and this looks.quite differently.uh and here uh both of those ratios are.very very slim.similar in the last two years what that.leads me to believe.is people are looking at at the average.net returns for the last 10 years.rather than the last five years uh when.they're making cash rent and farmland.price.you know for cash rent and farmland.price expectations.and also those historical low interest.rates this is not a move point jim.because you know and i know.and todd knows and everybody knows that.the average net returns last five years.are much lower.than that what they've been the last 10.years last 10 years would would.would uh would bring into that average.some pretty high returns.and some more some optimism there yeah.so when you look at the 10-year you.really have two distinct periods you.have the first five years which was a.relatively high.income period well not relatively very.high income period.followed by a relatively low or lower.income period.and people averaging across those.implies that they do think they're going.to see some recovery in the future right.yeah so some optimism there and so i.think that's a way to we haven't got the.cash rents yet.but that's a way to to explain why the.cash rents are where the.or where they currently are at you know.for west central indiana average.productivity land for example 240 to 250.rather than 210. uh if you're thinking.the returns are going to be a little bit.better than what they have been recently.that you would you would bid that up a.little bit you know keep those cash.rents up a little higher there's a.there's a uh a lot of farmers are.uh hesitant to want to let go of land.yes to think.well what if i want to get it back in.here too maybe i could take a bad year.or a couple bad years but um i mean.they're certainly not going to take 10.bad years right but.uh but there's a there's a belief of.sort of we can take one bad year and.then.and then move along as long as i expect.it to go back up so todd the other piece.of information you've got to share with.us is the fact that usda just released.their annual farmland value survey.results.here just this week and you've got some.of those to share with us as well.yeah so this is a this is a comparison.between.our purdue survey that's the solid line.the top uh.in this sort of deeper gold color and.then the two.dashed and dotted lines below are usda.numbers so there's a little bit of.difference in terms of who.the survey it's so they're both.conducted in june which is nice.but the usda surveys farmers and they.ask farmers what do you think the value.of your land is and they split it into.two or three different categories here.i've shown the two of cropland.so that's just sort of bare cropland and.then farm real estate.includes uh value of land and buildings.or other improvements.and so you can see we track pretty.closely particularly sort of around.until about 2007 or 8 and we see a.little bit more of a divergence.since then our survey has been a little.bit higher but we're consistent in terms.of the usda is basically.uh there's always a much smoother series.than you tend to get from smaller.surveys that.uh like we do here at purdue or some.other uh universities.and so they've held basically flat since.about 2017-16.if you look at data from other states to.i know you've looked at this too.uh iowa and illinois would be a similar.situation.yeah where the their the individual.state surveys are showing.showing a higher peak than what the usda.did.yeah and and i used to work at the usda.uh.and so i'm very familiar with the state.if anybody wants to nerd out and talk.about.how it's designed and conducted and why.i think that is the case.but they but they are dealing with a big.set of data and it gets.aggregated and smoothed and so part of.that richness is you get a.maybe a better measure of average in.some ways but you're also considering a.lot more things as average right so.those respondents are responding the.value of the land that they farm.and to be a farmer of the usda you just.have to have a thousand dollars.production giving you.right so i think that's maybe different.than when you talk to uh people who work.in the land markets that are thinking of.buying and selling or accepting land as.collateral.they're maybe thinking of a different.subset of it's the i think it's the.marginal versus average.yeah you know on the on the margin i.mean there's only a few buyers.and they're the people that are that are.you know pay you know paying for the.farmland and keeping the cash rents.higher than it would be normally so.i think it makes sense from that.standpoint yeah and and the work that.i've done.and research that the usda number tends.to track the median of sales prices.right so it's that half that splits the.top and bottom.as opposed to the average which with.prices always kind of gets pulled up.because we have.uh you know some of these very few high.value sales will pull up that average.but the median's unaffected right so.uh but it's always interesting to see.sort of where we come in with the uh.compared to the usda and when i used to.work for the usda everybody would want.to talk to me about why the usda was.wrong so.i always like to take it take a look.still i'm saying that's like question.two.yes so you've taken a look at usda.numbers not just for indiana but really.for the corn belt so let's talk about.those.yeah so if we look here across the corn.belt so the top number is the.average value per acre for cropland in.this in the corn belt states.the bottom number is the percentage.change from 2019 so what they're showing.change.so they're showing no change here in.indiana as well as in illinois a slight.increase in ohio and missouri.and a slight decrease in iowa so iowa.had that.you know higher up uh run-up but it's.sort of slipped down a little bit more.and it sort of continues to slip a bit.yeah so it's kind of interesting though.if you look at across the corn belt.basically that says.essentially almost no change right if.you start aggregating across those.states.yeah and depending on um you know as.long as you're not selling something if.one percent price change you know.virtually the same right.so um yeah so this is the sort of the.history.of i just broke it out just to the eye.states get a little too crowded we put.the whole corn belt in there.and i have to see my native home state.of missouri hanging down below.the rest of the corn belt but here you.can see that.in this last year illinois is slightly.higher than iowa.but iowa had been.above illinois the rest of the ice.states for quite a while.they had the highest peak in that period.of 2014..so they've come down a little bit more.maybe a little bit convergence there and.the difference.um and indiana just below both illinois.and iowa.but it's held relatively stable um over.the last year or two.several years so let's kind of summarize.the results on on land values before we.start talking about cash rents so from.june 2019 to june 2020.you saw a survey of respondents said.price is up.actually pretty significant increase.that last half of 2019 right.yeah particularly i mean even the with.the slip we've seen since december.we're still net up three to five percent.i think a year ago now.if if you guys would have said hey we're.going to get three to five percent.increase next year people will be very.excited about it.so even though we've had that little bit.of slip uh since december.um it's still a net gain over the years.pretty good pretty good gain i think.and um looking ahead the survey.respondents said they think we're going.to see some more softness in the last.half of this year.yep slightly more than we saw in the.first half and just to kind of summarize.those key drivers farm income commodity.prices interest rates.and limited supply land on the market.right so i have to throw one other thing.and.all three of us wind up talking to.people that are actively engaged in the.farmland market and.and we hear stories right and some of.those stories suggest that maybe there's.a little more strength than maybe what.we picked up in the survey what what's.your reaction to that.yeah particularly i talked to folks that.are in the.in sales here in in the corn belt um.i always hear the prices are really good.uh or the last everyone's been hearing.prices are very good but they're often.also caught with.they're much better than we thought they.would be right so even places where they.have slipped.maybe they didn't slip as much they're.expecting particularly think about the.way sales are conducted.where you can't do in-person auctions of.big groups and.moving stuff online but you know talking.to people.that are working in the farmland markets.there's definitely.of the land that's sold seems to be.selling it at a pretty good price.and even especially in the last you know.since our survey was conducted i've.heard.from a couple of people that say one of.the pieces of information we often don't.have jim.is is is let's go to that limited supply.i think there's people that have held.land off the market.because of the covet 19 and you know how.big was that group.you know how how how limited is the.supply compared to what it would have.been.otherwise i think that i think that's a.big factor yeah.i mean one of the factors about farmland.i think you've probably looked at this.at some point in the past and.the annual turnover rate in farmland is.quite low so.relatively small changes in the number.of people that choose to put farmland on.the market can have a.noticeable impact on prices yeah as far.as.land that's sold on the open market that.any of us could buy it's about one.percent of farmland.across the country so it's really small.i also think similar to what michael was.saying.i mean if you had an income generating.uh.asset and there's an economic slump it's.not a time to unload unless you have to.um so i think there are probably a lot.of people that are holding on to see.what's going to happen.yeah all right let's talk more about.cash rents so.uh why don't you share the results with.us for from the survey so.cash rents uh similar to land values or.up.a little bit higher though actually sort.of four to five percent across the state.um.so here we have this a statewide average.again in the top.average and poor and if you're.interested in the.uh i should also mention to any of our.viewers if you're interested in the.how they vary around the state that's on.our report as well but at the top we're.seeing.uh slight increases of four to five.percent.so michael are you surprised by that.uh yes i was quite surprised at that i.thought that i thought they might be uh.but it'd be less than two percent yeah.i was thinking negative two percent.declined to two percent increase and so.when it busted outside that range i was.surprised yes.so what do you think the driver was.there i think.one of the big drivers uh was the large.government payments in 18 and 19..i think that contributed so the mfp.program had a positive influence on.people's.liquidity yes and and i think i think if.you look back in 19 i think the crop.turned out better than a lot of people.thought it was going to that matters.when you're negotiating those cash rents.for 2020 in the fall of 19..yeah good point and i think people were.generally optimistic in the fall of 19.thinking that.they turned a corner and that a lot of.the challenges we had with marketing and.in production of 19 as well it didn't.end up being as bad as i thought so i.think we were.relatively optimistic that's that's a.good point because if you go.again look back at the ag economy.barometer we have the all-time record.high since we've been collecting data in.2015 was in february of this year so.end of last year beginning of this year.before covet 19 hit people were pretty.optimistic in fact more optimistic since.the.we've been collecting data they weren't.talking three dollar corn put it down.yeah that's a good point so let's take a.look at the.the rental rates over time this time.right yeah so this is again.uh inflation adjusted um and what's.interesting on a real term.land prices or cash rent sorry have held.relatively steady though we had a little.bit of a you know it.it rose and fall over that sort of 20.2005 to the last 15 years or so.but it's held relatively stable.since the mid 1980s and so.we have this little bit of an uptick but.it just.it's all sort of still in that kind of.comfortable zone of what cash rents.appear to be.so looking at those real terms uh.again a modest increase right for.2020 versus 2019 of about 11..well 10 or 11 an acre um.and then you've looked at the cash rent.to land value ratio and that's that's.the one that's of.concern not only to farmers but some of.those non-farm investors as well.yeah in in people that inherit farmland.or uh.so the easiest way to make money when.you own farmland is to just rent it out.to somebody else and have them.do the hard work and so i always look at.that ratio of what is the cash rent to.the land values i mean.if you own land what can you expect to.to make on the rental market.and that's held at about three percent.uh since 2015. it's held relatively flat.and so we haven't had any action there.we're still below.sort of what the long run average would.be of that ratio.but it's held very stable and you know.when i.visit with non-farm investors they look.at that three percent.and start making comparisons of that to.what you could earn on a cd.for example yeah and that explains why.some people that.perhaps aren't farming are at least.interested in either retaining.ownership of farmland or in some cases.maybe stepping in and purchasing.yeah anyone who's concerned about.retirement if they say well for every.dollar you give us we'll give you three.percent return.um that that always looks attractive.yeah.certainly and relative to what you can.get on a cd these days right.yeah exactly so let's take a look at.that on more of a corn belt basis.yeah and again sort of general story of.no change same thing we saw with.cropland values.uh which i should mention uh you know as.economists we.would hope that would be true that you.don't want to have cash rental rates and.and land prices getting too out of whack.so when you see sort of stable and one.staying stable.in both it's always is is uh is a nice.thing to see.it shows the word in equilibrium we're.relatively unchanged.um here across the uh corn belt.and then you looked at a little more.detail at the i states yeah and again.with the uh states uh.indiana were hanging just below uh iowa.and illinois.although interesting enough iowa still.has slightly higher cash rents than.illinois just with krafland values.illinois it edged out iowa spent some.time living in illinois so.i know about the the cross state rivalry.there uh but we.we see this uh sort of general pattern.of of.cash rents have held relatively stable.since about 2015 across the united.states.so let's kind of summarize uh cash rent.summary here in indiana.up four to five percent yeah uh.increased uh uh enough to surprise.michael but uh.at pa at pace with land value.increasingly and i guess maybe uh.maybe the driver there i think that.second point of the slide kind of points.it out cash rent to land value ratio.held steady right.and that was maybe one way to look at.why.cash rents did what they did right so.um michael you've taken a look at cash.rents and net returns to land and have a.projection on there for the 2020 crop.yes uh this tells a little different.story of in terms of what 2021.might look like i i think todd in the.actual survey.it was very flat in terms of the cash.rent expectations uh for 20 20.21 or the upcoming year this chart.suggests something a little bit.different.i i'm more of a doctor doom when it.comes to cash rents even though i'm.optimistic on land values i do think.there's some.strong downward pressure on cash rents.depending.on what the federal government does in.terms of an mfp type payment later this.year.but if you look at the payments that we.currently have in terms of government.payments you know forecasting an art.county plc payment.and then also a cares cares act payment.uh the net return to land with with.three dollar corn and soybeans that are.not.uh too good either compared to previous.years perhaps.you're looking at a pretty low return.you know.even lower than 2015.after which we saw a pretty pretty large.decline.in cash rents and so that gap between.cash rent.and net return to land in my mind uh.suggests that we're going to see some.downward pressure on on cash rents in.2021.and so i've been telling people that i.think even though cash rents and land.values have been.uh you know uh pretty much nick you know.highly correlated the last few years i.think we could see a divergence in that.in the next year or two where we.actually see a little bit of strength.in the land market uh and and.not so much strength even some decline.in the cash rent i think the.fundamentals are different.for those two markets the cash rent is.heavily heavily focused on the net.return to land.whereas the land whereas the land market.you got the net return to land.and cash rent but you also have low.interest rates alternative investments.and some of these other things.that are positive when you look at land.values and not so positive when you look.at cash rents yeah so i'm looking at the.chart michael and you've got that.projected for 2020 net return to land.here in west central indiana of roughly.a hundred dollars.so about a 50 decline in net return to.land compared to last year.yeah and as we've alluded some previous.programs you know.even with the cares act in there it.doesn't match what we got from the mfp.program these last couple of years now.one of the things when you when you.one of the things that when you're.looking at this cash rent net return to.land obviously net return to land is.much more volatile.we've done some statistical analysis.looking at the relationship between.these.if you see something like a a hundred.dollar decline in net return to land for.for a given year that's a that that uh.you're looking at the historical.relationship that suggests that there.might be.as much as ten dollar uh ten dollar.decline in cash rent so the so the.declining you decline cash rent's.usually only about 10 percent.uh as big as the decline in net return.to land so even though.there's a 100 difference there that.doesn't.translate into cash rent crashing but it.does it does create a situation where.you could see.uh cash rent uh ten dollars or more.lower than what it is in 2020..well the the argument i often get is.people saying.i can't bid it down right um you know.sort of who has the power and.it seems like any time i talk about the.relationship with rent and value.uh i either frustrate farmers um.who are wanting to bid down cash rent or.i frustrate the landowner and say quit.telling them the rent should be lower.right.uh and i think there's a there's a lot.in that bargaining process across the.market in terms of.how well this you know we can we can and.i would concur the way i would look at.that todd is.is if the gap is and we've been s we see.here in this chart.the net return to land's been lower than.cash rent since 2014 and some of those.years there wasn't the.decline in cash written fact in in 20.there was actually an increase and so.in my mind it takes a pretty large gap.that's why i look at 2015 there.we had a pretty large gap between cash.rent and net return to land.in that particular year and you can see.in 16 there.we had a pretty large decline in cash.rent and so i i.to a certain degree i agree with you if.the gap there is is not real.large i think we just kind of keep cash.rent steady is when you see these big.gaps like this.is where i think there's more pressure.for the you know for a downside.adjustment.and i think there's some uh obviously a.lot of people out there that are uh.betting on the idea that we may see the.pattern you saw between 10 and 11 12 to.where.we're gonna have a rebound but like we.mentioned the very beginning.how long can you afford to yes hold on.to that land.at a at a loss how big of a loss until.you have to.something's got to give and there are.fewer people today that have the.liquidity.to support those cash runner rates.compared to say five years ago now.we should point out uh that we do have a.cash rent.spreadsheet on the center for commercial.agriculture website.where you can plug in uh budgets for.corn soybeans and if you have wheat uh.down south you can also plug plug that.in and and then you also plug in some.assumptions on where you think.uh you know where you think prices are.going going in the next five years.and it allows you to compare net return.to land to cash rent for the next five.years.to get some handle on how big that gap.looks not only.in in the 2021 period but over the next.five years and if the gap looks really.big there.then you need to tell me tell yourself i.think you need to ask yourself at least.can i afford to have a fifty dollar gap.you know fifty dollar plus gap for five.years here we're looking at one year but.if that looks like it's going to be like.that for five years.then yet can i afford to lose 250.dollars in working capital.and so those are the kind of questions.that that cash rent spreadsheet helps.answer.yeah so a lot of those cash rent.discussions are getting underway.about this time of year and we'll be.continuing here for the rest of the fall.and into at least part of the winter so.it's going to be interesting to see how.that shakes out so.that wraps up our discussion today i.want to thank you for joining us.we have another webinar coming up here.just next week usda usda's going to.release.its august crop production report as.well as an updated set of world egg.supply demand estimates and we'll have a.panel that includes myself and michael.langemeyer but also our crop production.specialist.from the department of agronomy sean.casteel the soybean specialist and.bob nielsen our corn specialist beth.hall the indiana state climatologist and.then.marlo johnson who's the regional.director for.usda's nas agency sharing the actual.details from the report.so we hope you'll have a chance to join.us for that.that'll be next wednesday august 12th at.1 30. so.you can register for that on our website.which of course is purdue.edu.commercialag and as todd pointed out.if you want to dig into the details and.i think a lot of people viewing this.probably do want to dig into the details.the detailed report with.uh more details than what we were able.to share today is available on the.center for commercial lag's website and.there's some links on the on the home.page and you should be able to find that.pretty easily so with that.i want to on behalf of my colleagues.todd keithy and michael langmere i want.to thank you for joining us.

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Indiana Cash Farm Lease Form FAQs

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How do I go about getting cash back that was seized in a raid? I have proof the cash was won the night before at the casino. Cops gave me the wrong form to fill out.

How do I go about getting cash back that was seized in a raid? I have proof the cash was won the night before at the casino. Cops gave me the wrong form to fill out. Go to the police station front desk and request the correct form, bring what you were given and explain the problem. Either they will have what you need or can direct you to where you might need to go, which might be the court house or some other tier of administration. It just depends on how the county administration and filing is set up. If they can not sort it out then you need an attorney, sooner rather than later. The longer you Continue Reading

How can I cash a money order if I fill it out wrong?

Bring it back to the issuer and ask that question. I know if you do this to a USPS money order and have valid i.d. they would do it… provided they have money in the draw when you go.

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What is cash rent farming?

Well, if you’re in the United States, you could simply consider that farming had a really good run a few years ago, is still hung-over from that party, and it’s already Tuesday morning and there’s no weekend coming anytime soon. So that’s probably not a sector you want to invest in right now. Or you could start by reading articles like this, and remember that farm incomes have continued to fall since 2015. Farmland prices can teach investors a lot about asset bubbles And you look at charts like this, from a farm forum a couple years ago : The first chart shows land values according to the NASS survey of Iowa land values going back to 1910. The chart looks like Al Gore's "hockey stick" global warming graph - it seems land values will go to the moon. However, if you take the logarithmic transform of the land prices (second chart), and then squint a little bit, most of the land price appreciation of the past century fits a straight line of 4.8% compound annual growth. "Log" charts are useful because it allows you to view data in terms of percentage change. When viewed in these terms the current peak in land prices looks very similar to the peak of 1981. Indeed, if you make a plot of the difference between the surveyed land price and the 4.8% compound growth line (third chart), the current and 1981 peaks seem very similar. If you take the % annual value change data from the years just after 1981, then apply those values to 2016 and beyond, it makes kind of a neat "forecast" (red line). And then you go find somewhere else to invest retirement money.

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