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How to put to use The Form 1015 2 ?

on today's episode we are going to take.a look at a sas company that was very.popular at the beginning.of the year and right now with all these.crazy ipos happening and the bit of.selloff that we're getting.i'm wondering if it's giving us a formal.buying opportunities for.these companies that were popular.earlier throughout the year.so today's episode we're going to take a.look at datadog and it's going to be.broken down into the following.first i want to take a look at who is.datadog what do they provide and some.other customers.then i want to take a look at their most.recent earnings to try to understand.the type of growth this company is.seeing after that i want to take a look.at their financials to understand.if things are improving over the long.term of things and taking a look at.things historically.and finally i'm gonna give my thoughts.on the company.and where i see it going in the next.five years.and maybe even and not actually even.give up my buy prices for.for these stocks so you guys can.understand when i'm gonna be picking up.datadog.if at all so like always if you are new.to my channel if you are a long-term.investor and if you like to learn about.growth stocks make sure to hit that.subscribe button.to all my returning viewers thank you so.much for the support it truly means a.lot and thank you and if you guys ever.want to get in contact with me.youtube comments you can find me on.twitter on twitch.um my discord channel on jose najaro.com.all the information that i provide here.is free but remember.all of this is just my opinions i am by.no means a professional.so none of this should be taken as.advice make sure to talk to a financial.advisor before making any decisions.so let's get started.all right so today we're taking a look.at datadog this is ticker ddog for all.my podcast listeners.it ended the day at 85.69.which gives it a market cap of about 26.billion dollars.so actually let me know in the comments.right now guys are you in datadog right.now.or are you watching this video to more.understand what the company does.and trying to see when would be the best.time for you to get in.also before we go any further i do live.stream on twitch.every sunday at 8 30 eastern time and.this is when i get back to the community.if you guys want to come and ask.questions.and just take a look at different stocks.make sure to follow me on twitch.you should see the link on the pinned.comment and also on the description.all right so now let's take a look year.to date for datadog.year to date this stock has returned.over a hundred and thirty three percent.to investors.and compared to its peak its peak is.somewhere around ninety six.dollars at the current price is down.about 11.so there has been a sell-off there was a.point when they.even dropped down further in sometime in.late august.early august and that was actually after.the earnings it dropped 21.and it was sitting somewhere around 75.dollars um so today's episode let's.start off.with the introduction of of datadog.so datadog the best place to find out.about the company.is just go to their website and do about.us.so datadog is the essential monitoring.platform for cloud applications they.bring together data from servers.containers database and third-party.services to make your stack entirely.observable.these capabilities help developing teams.avoid downtime resolve performance.issues.and ensure customers are getting the.best user experience.so you might be like jose what the freak.does that mean.what are you trying to tell me right now.so let me try to.just go a very very high level so we can.all understand because i know sometimes.people might watch it it might not be.software or in the technology aspect.so the easiest way for me to explain it.is so datadog kind of helps you with.performance issues when you write a code.it's.it's it starts monitoring and starts.monitoring your actions.inside your code so when a user clicks.an action or tries to do an action and.monitors that time it takes it might be.it might alert you might be like.hey developing team when your customers.click this action it's taking a lot.longer than when they click this action.it might be due to the way you have.written your code so it helps teams it.help.it helps developing teams resolve those.issues and make that performance a lot.better.and at the end of the day it's going to.help users uh is going to help the users.have a better a better experience using.the application.another thing datadog does and we're.going to take a look at some other.customers another thing datadog does is.it tries to it tries to help you.when um it tries to send you alerts.before things are going to go bad so.let's say you created an application.but before you created this application.you didn't know.how many users or or how much it can.really take.depending of user data and what.data dog can do is when you start seeing.a.new user's coming in it's going to start.showing you the way.um the way your application is reacting.and you might be like oh wow.right now it seems if it keeps going in.this trend.this portion of the code this portion of.the application.might break because it doesn't seem like.you'll be able to withstand.all this new popular this new popular.growth that i'm seeing.and that's that's super important.especially imagine.if you start a new app and when you.start and you get too much popularity.into this app that when people try to.get into your application and it doesn't.work.they might not come back again so these.are all important stuff and that's to me.the easiest way i could have explained.it now let's take a look at some other.customers and here you can go to.datadoghq.com and they have a portion of.of customers where they have videos.showing.how how their customers are using their.their product.so the first one is peloton and peloton.uses them.as a apm monitoring system and apm.stands for applications performance.monitoring so it's just how i mentioned.right it helps.make sure that the co um to tell you.where.where performance is lacking within your.application.and the way peloton does it is they do a.lot of live classes.and with these live classes they also do.some form of.of scoring preference so they want to be.able.to have right if you're doing a live.class you want to make sure your.scores are being updated are being.updated on real time experience.and you don't want to be there being.some form of lag behind that point.system.so they use it to make sure that they.that everything all the application.the performance is running as smooth as.possible.with the increase of number of users.that they're seeing.and with the increase of and with the.constant update.of those scores happening so you they.have to make sure those scores are being.updated.as as seamlessly as possible.um other companies that use them they.have a lot of great customers.century fox dreamworks sonos whole foods.wwe draftkings ubisoft and here you can.even take a look at.more case studies and two that i.definitely took a look on.and some testimonials two that i took a.look in were.draftkings and draftkings how they used.it is.originally when they first came out with.on the first.nfl sunday the first nfl sunday.that they came out before the game.started coming out.with they were seeing weird blips on.their data.and it was showing that the the it was.kind of giving hinting that.the software was kind of hitting its.limit.and this was happening before the games.even started.so it gave draftkings the ability that.before the games even started and before.the true amount of users came into their.application.they were able to see where that error.was happening and they were able to fix.it.so like that when the user base that all.those users that wanted to start betting.during the first football game and this.was a few years back.they were able to fix it before that big.user growth came.and pretty much instead of the software.being the application being shut down it.saved and then they were able to.really they were able to continue that.day as a normal day.another when that uses them was gamestop.gamestop uses data on datadog to help.them.reduce their risk during their cloud.migrate migration so.gamestop is moving a lot of their.information into the cloud.infrastructure and with datadock it.helps them it helps them make sure that.they're.that they're not losing data throughout.the process so we can see there's.a lot of diff there's instacart so if.you guys really want to come learn more.about them.i definitely wanna i definitely.recommend going to their.main website and taking a look at all.these testimonials that they have.to really understand this product right.because there's so many products cool.products that datadog has that it would.take me forever.to try to explain them all but i i.believe i gave the overall understanding.of them.all right so now let's take a look at.their most recent earnings so their most.recent earnings were august 6.2020 so that's about uh about a month.ago.and data dog right now has gap earnings.per share of zero cents which beat by.three cents.um so it's in in gaap earnings per share.it's.barely profitable it's pretty much flat.line.revenue for this company was 140 million.dollars and that's.up 68 compared to the same time last.year so we can see this is a.crazy growth stock and unfortunately.after these amazing earnings the stock.ended up going down.16 and i do believe that 16.drop was a great buying opportunity i.wish i would have done more research on.this company during that time.but remember at the end of this episode.i am going to give my thoughts and.what i consider are would be some great.buy prices for me.so what else happened during these.earnings so during these are during the.earnings they mentioned that.for as of june 30th 2020 which was their.end.of their second quarter they had over 1.000.and they had about 1015 customers.with annual recurring reoccurring.revenue of a hundred thousand dollars.or more and that's an increase by 71.percent.just a year ago it was only 594 so that.is that's that's.some impressive growth on the overall.customers.they've also achieved this thing called.fed ramp and i thought this one was.pretty cool.fedramp enables datadog to address u.s.federal governments.departments and agencies so it opens up.a whole.new customer base they also acquired.undefined labs and i do believe this.acquisition.is a pretty smart move for data talk you.guys you know how to explain datadog how.datadog helps you.understand how your application is.performing after the.the application is out there and running.it's committed.well with this acquisition of undefined.labs it actually helps datadog.help its customers understand how their.code is doing and how it would do.performance wise.before the code is committed to a.central repository so this is before the.code even goes live so a lot of new.this this enables customers to identify.issues.before even reaching production and this.i believe it shows that datadog.will now be able to be in before the.application is even in production.and after the code is in production so.that's a great play.i do believe that was a great play by.datadog because they are continuing to.pro.to innovate their products and releasing.new products as well for their customers.they did give guidance for for this.upcoming year for the year.data dog sees a revenue of about 566.million.to 572 million in revenue.and this was higher than the original.expectation which was around 55.555 million to 565 million.and the overall consensus was 563. all.right so now that we took a look at.datadog's earnings let's take a look at.their historical value and see we we saw.that in their most recent earnings they.were.very high in growth and growth wise but.has this always been the case for data.talk so here.we're taking a look at the traveling 12.months revenue for this company.and we can see every quarter the.trailing 12 months.revenue continues to go up another thing.that we're seeing is we're seeing an.increase as well of cost of revenue.but even that cost of revenue it is not.growing as fast as that revenue.and we can see that gross profit is.increasing every every quarter.if we take a look at the trailing 12.months revenue growth.in the recent quarter was 68 the quarter.before that was 87.the one before that was 84 and the one.before that was 87.so in the past four quarters it has.grown its revenue.by over 70 easily over 67 percent.over easily over 70 on average every.quarter that to me is showing that this.is.a true growth stock and it doesn't look.like it's stopping anytime soon.now i want to take a look at their.margin so their gross margins in the.trailing 12 months seem to be improving.over time.this most recent quarter was 78.3 when.the quarter before that was 77.2 and the.quarter before that was 75.5 so it does.seem a small increase.what i'm really happy to see is profit.margins.are increasing profit margin is just.two quarters ago um were were.negative when we take a look at trailing.12 months.so right now in the trailing 12 months.this quarter profit margins were 0.7.so now it has officially been profitable.in the past 12 months and that's a.really really great news.and we can see there is this improvement.the quarter before that was negative 0.2.the quarter before that was negative 4.6.the one before that was negative 7.8.so we can see an increase in profit.margins if we take a look at quarterly.it's not the first but that's.i like to take a look at longer range of.data and that's why i prefer looking.at the trailing 12 months revenue next i.want to take.a look at the at their balance sheet so.the balance sheet right now.doesn't seem that bad this quarter it.did increase.its debt by a big portion we can see.this big jump a quarter ago it was about.46 million dollars of non-current debt.this now is sitting at 612 million.dollars.and i believe that they did issue a.convertible senior notes which are due.to um 2025 which was about 740.million dollars at a print aggregated.principal amount of 0.125.rates and that's pretty amazing so if.this is.debt that's not due anytime soon and.it's at very very low rates.so that's where this big increase in.non-current debt.came from but we can see even with that.they have none current debt of 612.million.and currents out of about 14 million so.roughly.that of 625 million dollars.but they have current investments of 126.1.26 billion dollars in cash of about.210.million dollars so roughly they have.about 1.5 billion dollars of quick cash.which is enough to pay off their total.debt so this is a company with a very.very.strong balance sheet next what i wanted.to take a look at.was their their operating cash flow.margins and their free cash flow margins.so we can see one thing as their net as.their revenue is increasing we're seeing.revenue increasing.their net cash flow from operations is.also increasing.in the fair and very similar trend line.and that's what you want to see right.net cash flow from operations is the.money that they get.from their everyday activities and if.they're every day.that's their main business so that's.where you want to see that being.positive so and that's good that is.their revenue is increasing so is their.net cash flow from operations.their operating cash flow margins have.increased.over the past quarters and it's now.sitting at roughly.14.6 when we take a look at trailing 12.months if we take a look at.quarterly data it's a bit higher but.remember i.i like to take a look at the past 12.months better because it really gives me.a picture.understanding of the long term of things.for the company.next i want to take a look at free cash.flow and free cash flow if you guys.don't under don't know is.operating cash flow minus the money they.use for capex is what it's called.this capex is like long-term purchases.that they buy if it's some new equipment.so this free cash flow it's pretty much.their.normal operations minus any long-term.investments this company.is doing within the business and that's.still also profitable and we can see.over the years.as revenue is increasing that free cash.flow is now positive and it's also.increasing.at similar rates free cash flow margins.right now sitting at.9.38 and this is to me.it's looking really healthy for data.talk uh so.so now um now we took a look at their.financials so now let's.end up giving my thoughts on the company.and what would be some of my.my buy prices so before i go in let's.just do a quick.recap on data talk data talk the overall.market that they're in.i do believe is one that will continue.to growth and they are going to see more.customers.all right especially now with the them.being able to work with.federal agencies and the government it's.opening up.new customers for them to to acquire.next they're doing really smart with the.types of acquisitions that they purchase.this acquisition.that they recently did with undeveloped.undeveloped labs i forget what it's.called undefined labs.again it it matches with the products.that they do and it allows them to now.enter.before the before the application is.even in production.so i think that's even more a more.reason for customers to use.data talk we see that their most recent.earnings were really great they saw that.strong growth.when we take a look at historical values.we're seeing an improvement in profit.margins.we're seeing an improvement on gross.margins we've seen an improvement on.revenue growth this is just growing.dramatically quarter over.quarter when we took a look at that.balance sheet it was extremely.extremely healthy um and finally when.we're seeing that free cash flow margins.and operating cash flow margins we're.seeing that growth again over the.long period i'm taking a look at.trailing 12 months um growth and we're.seeing.we're seeing these lines continue to go.up so let me know right now how are you.guys liking.datadog as it is financially and.business wise i do believe this is a.great company for me.now now let's get into the tricky part.so for me datadog and for all my types.of investments and this is something new.this is.a product i've been getting i feel like.i want to be a little more.not predictive i want to say with these.videos but kind of discuss.where my long-term goals for this.company are.so the first thing is when i invest in.the company the first thing i want to do.i wanted to be.oh i wanted to do better results than.the market.on average the market returns doubles.your money in about 7.2.years i want my investments when i.invest in a company.to double faster than 7.2 years right.that's.that's the overall if i can do it what i.would prefer if i can double my money.every five years.in theory if i can do it every five.years by the time.by the time i doubled it twice in the.market.with my investment style i at that same.time frame it would roughly take.about i would have tripled my money so.we're seeing that inc.that compound interest just working its.way over.time and that's my end result so for me.i'm a long-term investor and let me zoom.in with this for for you guys so you.guys can can see what i'm doing here.so here what i have is i have the.current.revenue of data dog right and this is.zero uh year one.i thanks to analysts i can actually see.what analysts expect.data dog to grow throughout the years.and then and by the end of this year.they expect 5.71.mil 571 million dollars of revenue.growth and we took a look at what.what datadog actually announced that at.the end of this year they were expecting.somewhere around those levels.all right so that year makes sense then.analysts expect the year after that to.be 771 million.so we can see i i estimated this type of.growth and.i i put estimations on future growth i.believe.in the next in the next year three year.four year five.it'll grow on average about 36 37.annually so at the end of year five this.company would have.for in my this and remember this is my.opinion it would have.revenue of 1.9 uh 1.96 billion dollars.of revenue.all right so now what i also ended up.doing is i ended up putting multiple.price to sales ratio a multiple of 20 a.multiple of 25 and then multiple of 30..and the way i got these price to sales.ratios is i looked at different i looked.at different companies for example one i.looked at was shopify and shopify has.been here for some time.and they right now have a current.forward price to sales ratio of 31..i do believe 30 is a bit high but i.ended up putting that on the high range.um but so i but i also wanted cheaper.valuations.so the cheapest valuation i put was a.multiple of 20.price to sales ratio so at the current.prices right now current market cap.of 26 billion dollars if.if we buy if i was to buy if i take a.look at that revenue growth in five.years and remember five years this is.faster than the overall market the.overall market.is expected to double in seven years so.if in five years these values this.revenue growth.tend to go to how i expect them to go.the future.the future cap at the lowest price.valuation would be about.40 billion dollars and that would only.give me a gain of 51 percent.on the mid level and that's what i'm.really looking at at the mid level of a.price to sales ratio of 25.it gives me a future cap of about 49.billion so now that's almost.gains of 89 so now that's getting closer.okay.and now let's say these valuations stick.like crazy at 30 price to sales ratio.right now with that expected revenue.growth this.market cap would be about 50 about 59.billion dollars.so that would give me about 127 gains.and i that's better than that 100 game.that i want every five years so that.that would be.really good but that's me going in the.high ends of things so what i wanted to.see is.when would i if the multiple of 25 which.is the middle between the two that.i stuck with um when would that happen.for me.what stock price would it have to be.right now for me to get a hundred.percent gains.expected 100 gains within the next five.years.and for that the stock price needs to be.one 81.and this is not i don't think this is.impossible to expect.eighty one dollars in the most recent.earnings data doc dropped all the way.down.to 75 dollars so it is possible with the.volatility for it to buy it.so for me a really good buying price.again just my opinion and for me.to get into datadog would be around 81.but even right now 89 it's not that far.off from that 100.what would be an amazing buy a super buy.but this is me being.really really hopeful would be when i.would get a hundred percent returns.on the 20 price to sales ratio and if i.was to get 100.on the 20 price to sales ratio i would.have to buy at about.65 that one like i said i believe.it is very very wishing wishful thinking.if i may say.um so right now for me datadog doesn't.for me datatalk doesn't seem like a bad.entry price if it could drop a little.bit more it would be amazing like i said.around that 81 is where i would really.really start looking into these.companies and i'm gonna actually.build a data sheet like this where i'm.gonna i'm gonna probably do.all my stocks that i owned and put a.stock price of when i should start.continue to inc at what points i should.really look to.increase and datadog is obviously my.first one.and that 81 is when i would really.really start getting into this company.more and more.but even right now we're not too far off.from that hundred percent gain so.i wouldn't mind dollar cost averaging at.this at these price points either.um i do want to say i did purchase a bit.about a day or two ago.um and i can see in the long term of.things i believe it has been it's gonna.be a great return.but this is expected on this type of.revenue growth so if i end up seeing.some of this revenue growth changing.over the years i will.update it and it would help me get a new.stock price to look at.again this doesn't mean that when the.price.for example let's say in five years i.have a market cap of 59 billion.and i got over 127 percent that's not.the my sell price that's not at all what.i'm saying that wouldn't be my sell.price.i would then re-look at this i would.redo a chart like this.and try to look at the upcoming years in.the if the upcoming years if it's still.expecting for me to beat the market then.that would hold my position right.these aren't sell price points it's more.what what for me would be the best.buying points.of this stock so i hope you guys enjoyed.today's episode let me know if you guys.really like how i ended up this episode.ended this episode with getting some.form of buy price.on on the company um again remember.these are all my opinions and none of it.should be taken as advice.but i think it's always good for me to.go in with the plan and to understand.why i'm investing in the company and try.to understand.that valuation growth over time um so.let me know.like i said let me know in the comments.if you like this small portion of it.that i ended up adding.i found it very useful so i think i am.going to add it onto the remaining.episodes.so take care guys have a good night and.see you next time.[Music].you.

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