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good morning dr. gross thanks for your.time today it's great to be with your.after all these years I think people are.very interested to hear the path of how.you got to where you are how you your.career progressed and became the.director of the Census Bureau I'm not.sure a lot of people are interested in.this but I'll answer your question it's.it wasn't a linear path I never thought.I would be in this job first of all so.two young people watching this I think.I'm not a believer that in planning your.life out so it wasn't one of those kind.of progressions I went after a bunch of.interesting problems I think so I had.formative experiences as an.undergraduate at Dartmouth where I was.exposed to measurement of human behavior.and attitudes and I thought that was.kind of interesting it was at a time.when that was being linked with a more.high-speed computational analysis of.data so that kind of came together and.and I pursued that throughout my life.finding problem after problem with human.measurement and in general so that.prepared me in some way that wasn't.clear at the time for for the job I have.now and who influenced you I had a.wonderful teacher who still lives his.name is James Davis he's a sociologist.but at one point was director of the.National Opinion Research Center he was.spending some time at Dartmouth when I.was a student and he changed my life as.professors often due to individual.students and what interests you about.you've spent much of your academic.career studying surveys and and survey.error what about that is interesting and.and exciting to you well I thought.you know decades ago that there was a.gap in how we think about measurement of.human behavior and the gap had to do.with the the statistical analysis of.data on one side and the behaviors and.thoughts of human beings that produce.the data so that interface how people.make decisions to participate in a.survey in most countries of the world.once they are participating and they.listen to a question how do they process.the meaning of the question and answer.the question all those things I found.fascinating and what was missing I think.or what I wanted to plug away at was the.bridge between those social and.psychological influences on behavior and.the statistical data that came out on.the back end I wanted to try to put.those together tended turned out to be a.lifelong work and you spent most of your.career prior to census bureau in.academia what was it like coming into.the directorship of a large organization.doing practical surveys well I was.director of the survey research center.at Michigan which is you know for.academic things is a pretty big place.but nothing like the Census Bureau so I.felt and continue to feel at home at the.Census Bureau intellectually the the.basic work of the Census Bureau of.conceptualizing measurement drawing.samples collecting data processing data.and producing estimates all of that is.something that I love I love all of.those pieces in different ways so even.though there's a very big organization.and my position doesn't allow me to get.into the nitty-gritty of everything it.is that process that I feel aligned with.and you've said that later this year.you'll be joining Georgetown University.congratulations thank you as you look on.your career so far at the Census Bureau.what are.some of the things the accomplishments.that stand out most well I don't view.any of these as personal accomplishments.it the one thing that's humbling about.being the director of the Census Bureau.as you quickly realize that there's.someone in the Census Bureau who knows.more about every particular topic you're.dealing with than you do and I think the.accomplishments are accomplishments of.the institution I remind us that in 2008.and 2009 most of the common press on the.Census Bureau was that it was headed for.a disaster in the 2010 census that.actually energized a whole bunch of.people in the country who care about the.Census Bureau as an institution and that.was related to my decision to come here.clearly but it turned out that all of.those predictions was raw were wrong the.the team that was assembled late in the.decade to run the 2010 census was really.much much better than anyone knew at the.time they had organized things in a way.that made for success so I was the.beneficiary of you know good things that.were done before I got there and in the.2010 decennial census what would you say.our the domain accomplishments and how.that was run well there a variety of.design decisions that were made way.before I came so this movement to a.short-form census is good for public.participation that's unambiguous the use.of a replacement form if you didn't.respond initially although that.generated a lot of grumbling actually.helped the return rate we had a return.rate of this mail questionnaire that was.higher than in 2000 this is you have to.be inside the survey biz to understand.what an accomplishment that that was.with response rates falling throughout.the decade we had a bilingual form that.was a good thing that that helped.spanish-speaking folks and I hope we.expand that.and then just yesterday we announced the.findings the evaluation the statistical.evaluation of the census through the.post enumeration survey and this is one.of the best censuses this country has.ever seen great and in 2010 you also did.a lot of outreach to minority groups how.did that go well personally this was the.most wonderful thing I've ever.experienced in my life so I I was all.over the country meeting with small.community groups of every ethnicity and.every language group that you could.imagine I learned a lot about the.country first of all band this was just.a personal gift iment to me but I also.realized in a way that all of my.colleagues realize here at census now.too i'm convinced that when we do.effective outreach to communities when.the communities think that it's their.senses that they're actually.participating in it just works better.and with the country like ours a very.diverse both in terms of language and.culture we just have to do that and I.think we now believe this so fully in.our bones at the Census Bureau that will.do better and better going forward it.was in the news recently that the number.of minority births is estimated to have.passed a number of white births and in.this in a country that at its founding.you know had a very different attitude.toward minorities have you reflected on.you know how far we've come in those oh.yeah and and back to you know my.reflection on this topic was heavily.affected by my experiences in 2010 and.one of the things that it is is.happening right now in this country is.that new immigrant groups are not just.in the big cities on the two coasts.they're everywhere because of modern.transportation and job opportunities and.so on.and so the absorption of these new.immigrant groups the socialization of.these groups isn't going to be done in.big urban areas as much as it was in.Prior waves it's going to be done in.little villages throughout the country.that fact alone means that the the.socialization of these groups is going.to be different than in prior decades.and it's going to be fascinating to see.what the country is like what the second.generation of these new immigrant groups.will be like 20 years from now what.remains to be done at census oh there.are tons of things to do the work of the.Census Bureau and the work of the survey.industry in general is never done.because unlike the hard sciences the.things we study are constantly changing.so if we don't change our our methods.and our approaches we fall behind and.we're attempting to do that at the.Census Bureau in a variety of ways one.of the things we're moving to very very.aggressively is to take advantage of.other data resources to take advantages.of new modes of data collection so our.vision of the future is that the stock.surveys that we were all taught in that.I that I taught to you I guess at one.time those are going to morph into much.more complicated beasts involving.multiple modes of data collection.administrative data or auxiliary data.and the estimates that we make off of.those will rely on these multiple data.sources simultaneously that's a.revolution in terms of all of survey.work it's going on now throughout the.world the Census Bureau has to be part.of that to stay relevant SN you've.announced plans to use web data.collection in the 2020 census and.another important surveys in the in the.meantime tell me about that thought.process and what you've done and are.doing I think the first thing to note.that isn't well known is that the Census.Bureau has been using internet surveys.especially.in the economic area for for many many.years we have a lot of experience with.it we've solved the IT security problems.to the to the level that we need as a.government agency so we're just.expanding those those capabilities the.move the the decision to do this for.2020 was a really easy decision that.that part is is trivial the problem with.2020 is it's so far out that what the.internet will be and what devices we.will use to access the internet are.really hard to predict for a government.agency this is hard because we're used.to lon planning horizons and we have to.stay more nimble because of this so.we're anticipating an Internet and the.accessing of the internet that's.entirely mobile wireless and ubiquitous.and so preparing for that world is what.we're trying to do in 2020 well the.census ever be all web based when the.population chooses to respond all web.will be there hopefully but the you know.the findings from around the world on.internet response to government agencies.surveys are pretty clear it's not a.magic bullet at this point it is an.auxiliary mode there's a lot of.substitution behavior going on that is.if I'd filled it out on paper I may.choose if given the option to go to.internet but there aren't fantastic.jumps and response rate because of.Internet it's another tool in our tool.kit and we need to take it seriously the.recent conference of a poor the American.Association for public opinion research.had a really unprecedented level of.focus on on new methods like web and.even mobile what's your feeling about.those methodologies and how that's all.evolving well these are tools as tools.of data collection we have to be there.there were a lot of good sessions on on.mobile computing and how we can use.devices handheld.devices for for measurement that has to.continue so we've developed here at.census a a Center for Applied Technology.where essentially one wall of the center.is devoted to every mobile device on the.market the purpose of that is to make.sure we stay current with new devices.coming on the market to see how our.software performs on those new devices.we just have to make that part of our.ongoing business a poor was also.debating sampling issues that is how do.you in this mobile world how do we.actually link up data collection mode.with sampling modes and that was part of.the controversy there too and that's.more challenging I would imagine yeah so.there were big debates as has been going.on in the industry now for gee I guess.it's maybe nine years or so about.whether volunteer internet panels can be.used in some fashion and may be added or.supplemented by other sources of data to.produce estimates that are accurate and.reliable over time there were big.debates in the sessions and with the.decennial census will that ever be.conducted using sampling in instead of.enumeration or in combination with.enumeration it could be that would.require I think either very deliberate.action on the part of Congress.expressing its will to do that but also.probably some attention in the Supreme.Court about a ruling that took that off.the table sampling for estimation in a.in a census so you can always conceived.of this but right now the legal.infrastructure is not there why has it.become more difficult across the board.for researchers to convince people to.participate in surveys well that's a.huge question as you know I care about.that question and I spent I guess 20.years trying to answer that question my.at the end of those 20 years I think.there are a lot of different forces that.are moving in the same direction you.know one of the ubiquitous correlates of.participation as urban icity people in.urban areas are less willing less able.to get act to be accessed and less.willing to respond than those in other.areas we're becoming more urbanized as.the population grows people who live by.themselves tend to be less willing to.respond the peep the young people live.by themselves are hard to access the old.people who live by themselves or less.willing to cooperate so there are you.know social and demographic forces going.in in that direction there are a lot of.hypotheses that we don't have good data.on but they're popular like we're over.surveyed this is something that the.survey industry you know and that's.navel-gazing often asks there there's.very little evidence of that but that.might be true as a hard hypothesis to.test with real data and then there are.as we become increasingly diverse the.the northern hemisphere developed.countries absorbing populations of new.immigrants that too produces issues of.whether the new cult the folks coming in.with different cultural backgrounds are.reacting to survey requests in in the.same way so it's a very very complicated.problem how it affects the quality of.survey estimates is also a very complex.thing as you know what would you say to.an average American who has questions.about the work that the Census Bureau.does in terms of the value that it.provides to the American people well I'm.happy and I have these discussions with.people as you might imagine from day to.day and I think the first thing to.observe is that modern societies run on.data all of the business sector the.private.sector has built more and more.management information systems that are.quantitative indicators of how things.are what's happening how things are.going countries to have this same thirst.so policymaking in most developed.countries require measurements on the.nature of the thing you're trying to.affect we run on data so then the next.question is given that the society runs.on day how do you get these data you.know how does how does this work now.some data come from natural processes.that are ongoing and government records.provide them but then we're missing.measurements on a lot of important.aspects of the country and we need.surveys to do that so if you want the.benefits of surveys in terms of better.decision-making both as your community.evolves but as your business of all's.and so on then somehow you have to make.the connection that when you're asked to.do a survey that those benefits derived.from your personal decision to do that.so one of the challenges of the Census.Bureau is to make that argument to a lot.of different public's in a way that's.convincing that your decision to.participate in a survey is linked to the.quality of data that the country has to.run on and how about people that have.concerns about privacy related questions.that are uncertain about some of the.questions asked and Census Bureau.surveys what would you say to those.people well we we know I mean we all.share these feelings right there's a.part of us that when when any question.that is private is raised we we ask of.the question or why do you need to know.that that's a legitimate question first.of all we all need to allow ourselves to.feel this way are our obligation I think.as a government statistical agency is.to convince people that the value of.their answer when put together with a.bunch of other people's answers in.guiding how things in guiding the answer.the question of how things are going in.the country that's really important and.that's why you should do it and then we.need to say one other thing and we do I.think well and that is when you tell us.that answer we have a sacred oath and.with legal mandate that we can never.reveal that and never associate it with.you ever again that that's kept.confidential and the wonderful thing.about the Census Bureau is we have a.wonderful record of complying with those.laws and that's something that we're.proud of and can say strongly that even.though this question might seem a little.intrusive you're telling us your answer.will never be revealed in any way and.will be used for the good of the country.and as you go back into academia what.will you bring from your census bureau.experience to that new role well I've.been amazed and disappointed I guess.with the use of statistical data in real.life decisions so I think that bridge.needs help societally and the bridge.requires the creation of a generation of.people who will go into business and go.into government and going to the.nonprofit sector aware that they need.data to make good decisions and so.returning to academia is part of my.quest to try to make that bridge a.little stronger what are the types of.things that's important for you know an.educated individual to know about social.science and and surveys and those topics.I think the basic lessons of statistics.need to be more fully dispersed in the.country so.is important as a as a resident of any.country to be able to query a number.that's purported to be true to be.critical of it and the basic lessons of.how measurements are done on humans and.what sampling error means and how.question wording and measurement tools.affect the outcome the more our society.knows that the more they can absorb and.critique different alternative estimates.this is this is a good and important.thing to try to achieve any plans for.another book well yeah I probably have.another thing in me I won't talk about.it now but i like to do book-length.things because it gives you a time to.enough space that you can fully develop.arguments so when people look back on.your stewardship of the Census Bureau.what would you like them too to conclude.or to say well I would be overjoyed if.10 to 15 years from now you can see.ingredients of the things that we.planted the seeds that we are planting.right now if they mature and do indeed.as we hope be part of the process of.building a 21st century census bureau.that that would make me quite happy but.we won't know this for a while all the.things we've put in place or many of.them I think will take a while their.culture changing things and it will take.a few years to know whether we've.succeeded or not dr. gross thanks for.your time today great to be what you did.

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