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and so in the lead up to the budget 2019.to 2020 here is a comparison of the.Indian economy from the time of the NDA.government's first budget in its first.term to how it is now and we are.breaking this down on a set of.definitive economic metrics on how the.economy behaved in the year 2014 and.2019 starting with the key parameter of.Rosse domestic product or GDP growth but.things are not really looking good you.are in 2013 to 2014 it was hovering.around the four point four to four point.six levels but in 2018 to 2019 there was.a dramatic collapse from the highs of.over 8% growth at the beginning of the.financial year to a mega 5.8 percent by.the end of it but all said and done.India's economy managed to notch up much.better numbers than most of the.countries at the moment exports in 2014.were touching the 300 billion dollar.mark and despite finding digit growth in.dezik spots hit a new high of 331.billion dollars in the last financial.year the rupee versus dollar rate was at.around fifty to sixty rupees for one.dollar in 2014 and now it's down further.between 60 to 70 rupees however that has.been offset by a surge in imports as far.as the unemployment rate is concerned.date from the NSSO is available between.the thousand eleven to two thousand.twelve and twenty seventeen to twenty.eighteen and those numbers paint a stark.picture because it has gone from a.little over two percent to 6 percent.while some parameters show the overall.health of the economy others inform us.of the situation at the grassroots level.inflation for example gives us a picture.of how articles are priced at any given.time the retail inflation rate went from.over eight to ten and ten and a half.percent by 2014 but in the past one year.it was hovering in the range of three to.five percent this shows that the prices.of the articles have not gone up.significantly in the past year a repo.rate controlled by the Reserve Bank of.India impacts followers particularly.home buyers almost every single time.there is a change back in 2014 it was at.around seven and a half to eight percent.but by 2019 if went below six percent.and for the last six months or three.bimonthly policy needs the RBI has not.incurred with the policy rate too much.[Music].now the budget is also an opportunity.for the government to push bold new.ideas two of them that stand out the.first is mass cities it is one of the.pet projects of the prime minister since.its launch more than 5,000 projects in.hundred cities were identified in the.entire budget the Modi government had.announced allocation for smart cities by.7% the total allocation stood at 6600.crores.the aim of the smart cities plan is to.tackle problems faced in urban areas.this includes transportation energy.supply governance and basic urban.infrastructure services the aim is to.improve the overall quality of life but.the smart cities plan is yet to meet an.impact now reports say a large chunk of.the funds haven't been used yet a new.approach to boost urban development is.needed by 2050 India will record the.world's highest urbanization rate around.60 percent of its population will move.through the cities another bold idea is.to integrate the highly fragmented.warehousing market in India reports say.the government could announce a new.scheme in this budget now this new.scheme could be aimed at the broad.integration of India's warehousing.capacities at the moment around 90% of.the warehousing space is controlled by.unorganized layers the government could.follow a template from Maharashtra the.state government they introduced a.scheme to identify their houses spread.across various government departments.and institutions then all these.warehouses were taken over and are now.managed by one nor a agency.now it's also important to gain an.understanding on the Union budget which.will be presented today so I'm also.joined in by Daniel J Gertrude professor.and business analyst who's joining us at.the moment let's quickly go across to.mr. Gertrude so thank you so much for.joining us my first question to you is.what are your expectations from the.budget that will be introduced by Modi.2.0 the sense India is facing a common.problem how to use the tax code in a way.that will stimulate the economy now the.trick to being able to do that is to not.raise taxes but at the same time be able.to raise tax revenue.now the Modi government has not been.successful thus far in doing that.because tax revenues at this point are.down from what the projections were so.at this point there are also many people.that are looking for tax cuts and.they're looking for them in a form that.would either be in hire exemptions or in.increases of deductions.now most tax experts believe that this.is not going to happen so you have a.situation here where the Modi government.is going to have to be creative in their.budget in order to figure out a way how.this budget is ultimately going to.stimulate the economy thereby bringing.in more tax revenue without having to.increase any tax rates or taxes on any.specific groups of people bring out more.tax revenue without increasing the tax.rates that's a very valid point made by.a damn girl over there also let's go.across to Richard Russo our expert on.us-india Policy Studies.mr. Russo what are your expectations.stations from the budget itself alright.I think due to some technical error mr..Russo can't hear me mr. Russo.let me repeat my question what are our.expectations from the budget this year.ordinarily I think the budget as a.policymaking instrument is a bit less.important than it was said say 20 years.ago but I think there are three main.things that the international community.and the Indian business community we are.looking for out of this budget first and.foremost of course is the first budget.of the Modi government part two you know.the budget speech what are some of the.main reform priority areas the.government intends to focus on in the.coming years second and this is.particularly you know looking at the.international trade fight that is.happening between the United States and.India will the Finance Ministry make any.concessions on customs duties as part of.the budget third one of the big asks of.industry leading up to the budget has.been a reduction in corporate tax rates.so seeing whether or not the Modi.government decides to move on reducing.corporate tax rates is the third big.area so budget speech reform priorities.in the budget itself looking at the.corporate tax rate customs duties.probably the main things companies gonna.be looking for out of this budget all.right mr. Alsup you also expect Prime.Minister Modi to initiate major reforms.again this time but it isn't always the.place to initiate major reform so I'm.not sure that you're necessarily going.to see in the budget itself something.that takes India in dramatically.different direction but I think early on.in Modi's first five years you saw some.of the big reforms happening earlier in.his tenure a big reduction in some of.the restrictions on foreign equity and.for investment rules you saw him move on.oil and gas regulations pricing of.hydrocarbons things like that some of.the tougher reforms like goods and.services tax took a couple of years but.by large you saw a lot of big reforms.early out of the gates and I suspect.that you'll see that again there's a.logic behind it a lot of reforms as we.saw with GST they caused a lot of.short-term pain so doing those early in.the government's tenure makes a lot of.sense but also big significant reforms.sometimes take years to gestate if the.government opens up into the area for.investment companies need to get license.they need to hire they need to invest.they need to launch products so reforms.take awhile to gestate and sometimes.cause short-term pain so big reforms I.would suspect so and probably a lot more.opportunity to do so early in the.government's tenure rather than trying.to get those done late in the.government's tenure so clearly big.reforms are not going to be a.[Music].

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