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what's up guys it's ben with 2020.election predictions and today i'm going.to show you why the 2020 presidential.election between joe biden and donald.trump will be.easy to predict this this isn't this.isn't clickbait i.really think it's going to be a lot.easier to pre dig than.oh a lot of people think and let let me.tell you why and.before i get too far in my video please.to subscribe right here if you haven't.already and hit the bell notifications.if you haven't.so as we know in 2016 a lot.of the state polls were wrong nationally.speaking the.um polls weren't that um off but on the.state level they were very wrong and.that's why.the like all the models all the.pollsters.all the people in the media completely.discounted trump and he.he ended up winning so i the main states.where it.mattered were pennsylvania where trump.performed the polls by 4.9.wisconsin where he upper from the polls.by 6.4 and.michigan where he where he outperformed.the force.in 4.3 so.if we look at kind of all the models.here.we we can see that.all all the main models have um biden up.and i mean this shouldn't be a huge.surprise um all the main models had uh.clinton up in um.2016 and i mean trump is is probably at.a pretty um.similar place than he was in 2016 in.terms of like.how much of a chance that that that the.models gave him so here.trump wins 24 of the time i think in the.2016 model on.election day um nate silver gave trump.about a 28.29 chance so what i.want to do is look at all like the.six states that i i think will matter uh.seven states here.right now on the republican step 205 to.the democrats to.222 joe biden and donald trump.obviously but since both candidates are.relative.relatively old um there is a little bit.of.uncertainty there if either will be the.nominee even though i still think that.they will be right now so.what i i want to do is take kind of the.average of the polls and then account.for.the uncertainty um there so i i i i j.then this is kind of my thesis i don't.think.that um the polls are going to be more.biased.um in 2020 than they were in 2016.just because i think they made a lot of.changes to.try to get get the um shot voter.um shot trump voter e effect.and they've spent a lot more money.investing in ways.to to try to weight um their polls and.in in 2016.on on the state level one of the reasons.why the the polls were so wrong.is because they over sampled college.educated voters.and didn't sample enough um non-college.educated voters the pollsters have.already learned um.from these mistakes to a degree so.what i want to do is kind of i'm going.to account for this.bias and i'm going to make some kind of.like still what.i would consider toss-up states.um and see if this still gives.biden enough i guess i'll just label.them black here for some reason it's not.working.um okay.so uh toss-up states i will have in um.yellow all right so let's get started.right here um let's start with.minnesota so or actually let's.let's start with wisconsin so right now.um uh.the 538 average the polls gives um.buying a 6.8 um chance of winning.and if we look here the polls were off.by 6.4.so this would still very narrowly kind.of be in binance column.so i mean right now trump would have to.just do a little bit to win.if we are accounting for the same um.bias so.um next up let's go to minnesota.um and see what we have here.so minnesota uh biden's leading by 7.6.and the polls were off by 4.5 so doing.some quick math um this would put.minnesota in the lean democratic column.so if biden gets over 270 or if um.trump does the same then um.i think the election will be pretty easy.to predict so going into arizona.um.let's look here and if if trump is up.in the polls then i'm not going to um.so let's see binds up by five let's see.how much the polls are off in arizona.they're.off by two points so we would still put.this.in the bottom abiding column right here.um next up let's go to florida let's see.how kind of how off the poles were in.florida.so right now biden's up by 2.4.in florida they were off by 1.9 but one.interesting data point i want to look at.is in 2018 the polls were off by between.three and four points so i i really.think we could still.see the schreiber effect so i don't want.to put florida.in the um biden um this this would very.narrowly tilt towards biden but i still.want to put it in.the toss-up camp right now.um all right now i'm moving on to north.carolina.and and i am not just doing this for the.sake that we um so we have biden.um up by one point and in north carolina.we can see the polls were off by 4.5.points um so we can definitely put this.in.in the toss-up category right now and.the reason why i'm i'm not putting this.in the trump category right now is.because that biden is still weeding in.the polls.um so what i am uh.assuming is that the kind of real curve.power or the.the 538 average of the polls um.it's going to be that and then i'm going.to account for a bias all the way to the.2016 bias because i think that the bias.in the polls is going to be.right between there i really don't think.we're going to see many polls.um or the ad the 530 average of the.polls be buys towards um.trump i just really don't think we're.gonna see that.so anyway going to pennsylvania we can.see that there was a.4.9 um bias in the polls so if uh.binds up by more than 4.9 then we can.put it in the.column so right now it's at 4.9 so we're.gonna have to include this as a toss.up right here um and.moving on we're going to look at.michigan as the final state so biden has.a pretty substantial lead at 7.5.and um so it was four.it was 4.3 so he can put michigan in the.lean democratic column so right now.accounting for the bias in the polls in.2016 we we have biden at 269.electoral votes i didn't do the.congressional districts in maine or.near nebraska but right now we cannot.predict that biden.is going to win in definitely um.if the polls converge where biden is.leading in pennsylvania more than the.2016 bias.or or the the the same in florida then i.think it'll be pretty easy to.predict because i really don't think the.polls are going to be more wrong.than they were in 2016 because i i just.frankly don't think this is possible so.right now we cannot come to any.um conclusions right now.but i think that biden just based kind.of looking on this model has a very very.good chance.to um win so um i can't say with like.100 proof um but if biden um.does like any better in any of these.three states then i think we can pretty.um certainly call the.election for biden but on on the on the.flip side.if i had uh made these republican.then it's a total tie so i mean really.right now the.election is at a toss so i definitely.think button holds an.advantage because i don't think the.polls are going to be as wrong as they.were in 2016.but i think this will be definitely.something that we we need to look at and.we need to have a caveat when we look at.the polls we can't just.blindly trust the polls um read this.article if you haven't already.um and i think this will show you why so.i really hope that you.like this video and please like.subscribe and comment.if you haven't already and i'll see you.later.

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Notification Of Intent To Operate A Special State Of Michigan Michigan FAQs

Here are some frequently asked questions along with their answers to clear up the doubts that you might have.

Need help? Contact support

How is the financial aid for out of staters at the University of Michigan?

It is notoriously hard to receive financial aid as an out of state student, at UM. They are very picky, and will dissect financial records. If you appear to be in dire need, then I'm confident your request will be granted, but not if you are on the edge.

How will the passage of "right to work" measures in Michigan affect the state economy?

It's not clear yet what kind of impact the new legislation will have, particularly given the structural problems associated with Michigan (state)'s heavily manufacturing-based economy. There's no question that "Right to Work" laws, by design, weaken Labor Unions' influence. But how unions' influence impacts workers is a narrower question than how the new law will affect the state's economy. Unions have many impacts on workers, including maintaining strong protections for incumbents and accompanying hostility to new entrants. While it might be true that average wages in right-to-work states go do Continue Reading

How does Michigan State University’s honors program compare to the University Of Michigan?

I had many friends from high school who had the questionable judgment to go to MSU versus UM. Can you tell I went to UM? Michigan the state is fortunate to have two world class universities. Overall, Michigan is more prestigious and maybe takes itself more seriously. Michigan State is a better choice if you are into farming or animal husbandry. Seriously, as a land grant university, MSU tends to be slightly more applied and real world in its research. In general, both are great universities. You need to look at what is the best feel for you. My friends who went to State are happy that they did…and Continue Reading

How important is the state of Michigan if there were to be a World War 3?

While I'm not sure it could still apply nowadays, but in WW2 Detroit factories were cranking out pretty much every war related equipment, from tanks to planes to bullets. Detroit was the beating heart. Carmakers built everything: tanks, airplanes, radar units, field kitchens, amphibious vehicles, jeeps, bombsights, and bullets. Billions and billions of bullets. Detroit, with 2 percent of the population, made 10 percent of the tools for war. Detroit’s Production Battle to Win World War II Michigan factories played a vital role in production. One really good example was a factory complex found near Continue Reading

How did University of Michigan vote for Michigan State to join the Big Ten?

MichiganState joined in1949. Don’t judge a vote in1949 by whatever is going on today. The Big ten had just lost the ipuniversity of Chicago. Geographically MSU was an excellent fit and had established rivalries with some of the teams.

Does an online retailer based in Michigan have to collect and pay Michigan sales tax on customer purchases made out of state?

Out of state purchases made via the internet are typically the buyers responsibility to report to their state of residence. Known as “use tax”, those purchases are reported on a quarterly, monthly or yearly basis by the consumer. So no, you don’t collect and pay Michigan sales tax on those orders.

What are the chances I will be accepted to the University of Michigan (out of state) with a 1340 SAT score and a 3.84 GPA?

Michigan’s admission process is wholistic, meaning that it looks at an entire candidate past just scores. What are your intentions in college, why do you want to study the topic you’ve chosen? These reasons need to be strong, your purpose defined, in order to make a good impression on the selection committee. Work those essays, rewrite and seek feedback, push yourself scholastically and you will begin to understand the type of scholar Michigan wants. Come join us.

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