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How Do You Get Eng Form 4288 R and Sign It from Computer?

大家好 感谢大家点击这个视频.今天是2020年9月20日 .片头播放的那一段视频是2019年4月马斯克在特斯拉的自动驾驶日的发言.他说自动驾驶不需要LIDAR 使用LIDAR的公司都不会有好结果 .和电动车领域一样 在自动驾驶领域也有庞大的反特斯拉 挑战特斯拉的阵营.今年我们已经看到很多新兴电动车品牌上市 想要瓜分这个巨大的市场.目前这个情况也在自动驾驶领域发生 .号称Lidar第一企业的Velodyne和后起之秀Luminar已经提交了上市申请.会通过现在很受欢迎的SPAC 也就是通过与空壳公司合并的方式IPO .今天的视频主要想分析一下Luminar这个后起之秀.也会与Velodyne进行一些比较 看这个公司值不值得投资.视频最后会给出我的操作.首先了解一下什么叫Lidar Lidar是Light Detection and Ranging的缩写.中文是激光雷达 从名字也可以看出 它与传统的雷达的工作原理相似.区别就在于激光雷达使用激光 而雷达使用无线电波 .主要作用就是利用发射的激光去探测与目标物的距离 形状等信息.不过激光雷达采集的信息和图像更全面更清晰.激光雷达最早是用于国防和建设领域.最近用途拓展到了自动驾驶 机器人 以及虚拟现实等其他领域.最新的IPAD已经搭载了激光雷达扫描摄像头 据说也会搭载在iPhone12上.我觉得作为外行人去争论激光雷达到底是不是实现自动驾驶的必需品是没有太大意义的.从片头的视频中可以看出 马斯克觉得激光雷达的最大缺点是昂贵的价格.仅在两三年前 行业老大Velodyne的Lidar价格是75000美金 .都能买两个model 3了 马斯克当然不会采用.但目前随着技术发展 Lidar的价格正在大幅减少.今天的主角Luminar的Lidar价格是500-1000美金之间.Velodyne今年甚至推出了100美金的Lidar .至于自动驾驶鼻祖Waymo 去年开始对外出售的Lidar价格是7500美金.如果激光雷达足够便宜 并且对实现自动驾驶有帮助的话 .那把所有可能的技术结合起来去实现自动驾驶.才是我们作为投资者和消费者最应该关心的问题.那回到Luminar这个公司.提起Luminar这个公司就不得不提起创始人Austin Russell 现年25岁.2012年还是高中生的Austin Russell在17岁的年纪创办了Luminar这个公司 .之后考上了斯坦福大学 但2013年18岁的时候收到了投资人Peter Thiel的投资.决定从斯坦福辍学 专心于Lidar的研发 .顺便提一下这位投资人Peter Thiel是与马斯克一起创办paypal的创始人之一.看一下Luminar的investor presentation.目前激光雷达的总市场价值是50亿美金 预计2030年会达到1500亿美金 .公司目前拥有93项专利 正在审批的专利有81项 .作为对比 号称业界第一的velodyne的专利数只有55项.Luminar不仅生产Lidar还开发相关的软件 .下面这一点可能是最重要的一点 Luminar已经和沃尔沃签订了相关协议.从2022年开始 沃尔沃的自动驾驶车辆将使用Luminar的软硬件平台 .沃尔沃也是Luminar的投资者之一.Luminar目前有50家合作公司 其中包括7家排在前十位的汽车品牌.但这50家合作公司大多数都处在协商阶段 目前成功签下生产合同的只有两家.Luminar自诩是唯一一家满足各项行业技术标准的公司.还特意指出传统的Lidar使用的波长是905纳米 但自己完全改变了传统的Lidar制造工艺.使用了1550纳米的波长 而且所用到的零部件也少了很多.最为重要的是Luminar产品的探测距离是250米以上 探测到的像素可以达到300 .达到了自动驾驶的要求 其他公司的产品距离这个要求还差的很多 .我特意查了一下是不是真的只有Luminar才达到这个标准.像素相关的数据没有找到 至于探测距离.Velodyne和Waymo的产品最高可以达到300米 但这里指的是最高值.如果算最高值的话 Luminar的探测距离是500米.所以大概可以认为Luminar的技术是领先于其他品牌的.而且Luminar的Lidar还有一个特点 就是形状是这种小方形 .不像传统的Lidar那样在车顶上旋转影响车辆的美观程度 .Luminar的美好愿望是在乘用车 卡车 无人出租车领域.以及包括宇宙 国防 建筑 农业等相关行业建立起自己的生态圈.计划在2025年就可以从这几个领域实现营收多样化.下面看一下公司的财务状况 公司今年的预期营收只有1500万美金.预计从2023年开始 营收会有大幅增长 到2025年会达到8亿3千万.年化增长率为123% .作为对比 Velodyne只给出了到2024年的预期 年化增长率是61% .但今年的预期营收已经超过了1亿 基数比较大 增长速度比Luminar慢也是可以理解.再来看一下EBITDA Luminar直到2024年EBITDA才会转正 .所以这个公司今后五六年肯定会继续疯狂烧钱.Velodyne的情况就好很多 2022年EBITDA就可以转正 .Velodyne毕竟成立时间是2007年 比Luminar早5年 在业务发展和财务方面也都更成熟.Presentation的最后 公司给出了自己和其他一些公司.未来几年的营收增长率 毛利率等数据对比 .但时间点不一样 Luminar使用的是2022年到2025年的预估数据 .而其他公司都是使用最近3年的数据 所以跟其他公司的对比都没有太大的意义.但公司的主要目的应该是和Velodyne做对比 .Velodyne这些时间点比Luminar早了一年 但Luminar的各项数据表现都更好.比如营收增长率Luminar是187% Velodyne是65% 毛利率两个公司差不多 .EBITDA利率Luminar是43% Velodyne是21%.下面这张图给出的是目前市值对比未来营收以及EBITADA的估值对比 .和前面一样 想要说明的是Luminar2025年的估值比velodyne2024年的估值要合理.企业价值EV对营收的比例 Luminar是3.5 Velodyne是4.1 .EV对EBITDA Luminar是7.9 Velodyne是19.但这些都是根据未来预估数据的对比 而且也是Luminar的一面之词 .如果去看Velondyne的presentation 就会看到不同的数据 .但没有公司的presentation会说自己不好 所以大家看看就好了.最后来看一下这个SPAC IPO的细节 与Luminar合并的公司股票代码是GMHI .这次的SPAC IPO是在8月24号宣布的 计划在今年第四季度完成合并 .通过这次SPAC IPO Luminar将会获得5亿左右的融资 Luminar的市值会达到33亿左右.企业价值EV是29亿 .作为对比 我们还是看一下Velodyne的估值 .Velodyne获得的融资是2亿 市值是17亿 企业价值EV是15亿 .我刚开始看到这些数字以为我自己看错了 因为Velodyne是公认的Lidar领域的老大.而且目前的业务发展和财政状况也都比Luminar要好 但市值却只有Luminar的一半左右.我找了半天也没找到原因 我只能理解为投资者对Luminar的未来更有信心.如果按2020年预期营收来算市销率PS的话 Luminar的市销率是220 .Velodyne的市销率是17 对于一个高成长性企业来说 市销率17在目前的股市已经算合理了.目前Velodyne的SPAC股票GRAF已经涨到了26 跟Luminar对应的GMHI的价格是12左右 .SPAC股票基础价格是10美金 所以GRAF已经涨了160% 而GMHI只涨了20%左右.正常情况下 这种IPO的股票我是不会碰的 .但我在周五以3.9的价格买入了200股的GMHIW GMHIW是GMHI股票的权证warrant.给我以11.5的价格购买股票的权利 但我不打算行权 .我的目标是短期投机 等权证价格涨之后获利了结 .首先我想声明这个绝对不是投资建议 看过我的视频的朋友们肯定也都知道我是长期投资者.不建议短线投机 但如果有好机会的话我也不反对拿少量资金去做短线投机.这里重点是好机会和少量资金 我这次买200股GMHIW总共也就是800美金不到.但我认为潜在的短期回报率还是很大的 今年这种SPAC IPO的方式很火.目前为止通过SPAC上市的电动车股票 在合并之前股价涨3,4倍都是很正常的 .虽然Lidar没有电动车那样的热度 但也算是自动驾驶所必需的一个产品和技术.而Luminar是除了Velodyne之外的唯一的准备上市的Lidar企业 .我相信随着合并的日期接近 更多合并的细节被宣布 .GMHI的股价也完全有可能涨到20以上 .当然了既然是投机 那这800美金全部打水漂儿也是完全有可能的.今天的视频就到这里 主要还是想给大家介绍Luminar这个公司和Lidar行业.LIDAR应该是今后发展潜力巨大的一个行业 而且目前看来Luminar的前景最好.但整体行业还是比较新 上市公司也很少 很难找到充分的相关信息.但我会持续关注 希望大家也能够从中找到投资机会 .看到现在 如果觉得今天的视频对你有所帮助 就请你赏个赞.第一次来到本频道的朋友们请订阅本频道.谢谢大家观看 下次再见 .

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Eng Form 4288 R FAQs

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