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[Music].hello everyone it's david here and.welcome back to learning finance.in today's video guys i'm going to do an.update on.apple stock ticker symbol aapl.which is obviously a stock that i have.been following.over the months and i also own the stock.as well as you probably know from my.previous videos that i did.on the stock and the last video i did.was early in september.and i was saying that i'm not buying.more.i'm gonna just hold my shares because.apple.uh seemed to me overvalued okay at the.time so.what has changed today because i have.received many comments please do an.update on this big tech so okay i'm.gonna do it.as since then we have had the new.processor.which is amazing and now yesterday.actually they came out new data on very.great.sales of iphones so we're gonna see all.of that.and i'm gonna tell you my new price.target.the only thing i ask you guys is please.leave me a really like it's very.important.you help me a lot to reach more people.and grow the channel and.subscribe to the channel so you don't.miss any new updates.let's begin so just quickly uh the graph.we have had since the pandemic this huge.run-up from apple the last video i did.we were around.here early september around 120 dollars.if you go to see it.and i told you that i'm not gonna buy.that anymore.and since then basically the stock has.not done.much sideways movement and that's normal.because when a stock.reaches uh his fair price is gonna go.between that fair price okay now for.stocks like.apple uh usually they always trade at a.premium but.if the fair price is around let's say.100 the stock cannot go to 300 okay.it doesn't make any sense so that's why.i said.that i was just gonna hold my chest but.let's see what has happened now first of.all.apple came out with the new uh processor.actually the m1 which is amazing.now i am a big fan of apple products.so uh probably i can be a little bit.biased.simply because i am not a let's say a.computer genius.and i find these things a very powerful.and.easy to use while for other devices.probably you should be a little bit more.experienced so that's why i buy apple.stuff because you just.turn it on and it works perfectly the.new.processor we have the m1 which if you.just read the reviews.at the moment they say that it is.probably the most powerful.thing that they have done that's.obviously the game.changer in terms of their devices.especially when it comes to.macbooks but that's not the end because.yesterday that's just from yesterday.from the cnbc.the iphone production is going to boost.30.next year which obviously apple share.went up.and this is because a japanese news.outlet.nikki i don't know how to pronounce it.reported that iphone production is.set to raise by 30 percent in the first.half of 2021 the copertino firm.is planning to build up to 96 million.iphones.between january and june next year that.includes the new 5g compatible iphone 12.models as well as the iphone 11 and the.iphone.se so uh basically shifting through.this new technology 5g and that.means a boost for them because if people.want to use that technology they need.something that.allows them to use that technology and.then.more and more people are gonna actually.upgrade.their devices to being able to use that.5g stuff so.a boost in sales and now the main.question.is will it last because the main problem.if you remember.from my previous analysis about apple is.that it.is a wonderful firm which has become.very mature okay so when you do.these kind of devices people probably in.one year the cells are going to explode.because of a new technology as we.as seen just now in the article however.in the long term.that explosion of one year like for.example we have seen here in 2015.uh went from 182 uh to 233 billion.dollars in revenue.you see the years later actually it's.not gonna continue okay.it's not a huge compound growth stocks.like.can be for example amazon you have one.exceptional year which it's very.correlated to actually the success of a.new product.uh which has been launched and then.obviously people.upgrade their mobile their computer.and then they're gonna keep it for at.least a couple of years.so you have this kind of boost one year.and then.come back down and calm a little bit now.uh.as we have seen this is from the old.analysis.the growth rate look at the slope of.this line.it was actually incredible from 2005.to around 2014-15.and then as we can see this line has.flattened.a little bit obviously it is a two.trillion dollars company.and it has become mature okay so it is.continuing to grow.a little bit but not at that incredible.rate.so that's why i also told that my.opinion it was overvalued back in.september when the stock was trading.near 140. now.what has changed uh with these kind of.things.the new processor the boosting sales of.iphones.and now this is from just 2015 okay and.we can see up until 2020.we have had a very kind of flat.growth lane now this boost we have.another boost.like the one that we have seen in 2015.analysts are basically predicting 2021.315.27 billion dollars for.apple and then 332 for.2022 expectations now obviously this is.a.jump of more than 20 percent and it is.not something.common for apple especially in the last.five years.they have been doing uh sometimes even.even losing.as we can see from here and then a.little bit higher and then a little bit.lower even before the pandemic so.overall it was like.around a 10 an average okay growth rate.now.20 obviously it is an incredible boost.so you do a.step up for at least a couple of coming.years.so that obviously has changed the fair.price and now however what we have to.keep in mind is that what is going to.happen.after that he's going to continue to.grow at that 20.rate or is gonna do something similar to.that one and analysts are predicting.that.is gonna happen okay it's gonna flatten.once again and that's pretty normal if.you are expecting an incredible growth.rate like 30.per year it is not a situation like.that now in my previous video i also.showed the business division we have a.55.in iphones and then we have wearables.which.was doing very great we have the mac.division and then we have the ipad.division which he wasn't doing.and that great and then obviously the.services division which i think is that.one.yes 17.79 so we have apple tv.all that kind of stuff which is a.significant portion of the business and.it was doing very great now let's.take a look before the evaluation to uh.the new situation.in the fundamentals so from september 20.we have this is basically the last.quarter that they have released.so we had a revenue 64.7.billion dollars and then what we care.about is the net margins.net margins which overall uh during the.last.five years they have been above 21.now obviously this is the year of the.pandemic so they came down below 20.but i think that that is gonna come back.to where.it was okay so at least uh near 21.so it is a very uh mature business but.very consistent and constant business so.you don't have crazy numbers.one year 35 then a year later eight.you have very constant number when we.take a look at the financial we have a.current ratio of 1.36.which is great for a huge company like.that.and then the total ratio 1.25.with total assets 323.8.liabilities 258.5.obviously they have a little bit of debt.okay we cannot deny it.it's not that they are gonna go bankrupt.but their debt.situation let's say it is different from.google and facebook okay because.if we consider the total debt they have.107.4 billion dollars in debt.that's 164 in terms of debt to equity.ratio now when we.deduct the 30 plus billion dollars that.they have in cash and cash equivalents.we have a net debt.above 100 so now the market cap.above 2 trillion dollars 2.15 trillion.and the book to value is quite high.at 33. now how do we value apple uh.obviously discounted free cash flows i.took.the revenues and then obviously the.ratio so.here we have the cash flows now here we.have a longer.uh time frame i did until 2028.and then a terminal value because it is.a constant business very mature so.i can try to estimate even longer than.five years okay usually.you don't do that with very new.businesses because it is kind of.impossible to understand that.let's take a look at the requirements.8.5 as a discount rate.it is a perfect rate in my opinion for a.huge company like.apple uh very mature not much of a risk.okay so 8.5 it is definitely.okay this is uh the magic basically now.2021 2022 i have used.the analysts expectations in terms of.revenue.then 12 which is let's.call it the normal case scenario.from 2023 to 2025 in terms of.growth rate of revenues and then from 25.to 28.a 10 i've said okay and then after that.perpetual growth 2.5.that's the scenario that analysts are.expecting okay so i've called it.the normal case scenario and once we.discount.all that back we have that basically.divided by the total amount of shares.outstanding.the fair price is the price of today.okay so the stock.at the moment it looks fairly priced.for this scenario the market cap 2.1.trillion.very similar to the one today so that's.let's say the normal case now let's take.a look at the best case scenario so the.bullish one.what changes is that uh from 23 to 25.instead of 12.i said 14 growth rate 20 25.28 12 growth rate okay so.scaled up by two percent and then rate.of return and.those things remains the same we have.fair price today.with this valuation of 138.29.per share so in terms of best case.scenario.the stock can have a little bit of space.to continue to grow.anyway this is not the most likely.scenario.even though apple all the times comes.out with new projects.new stuff new businesses so okay it is a.mature business but.they are also able to find all the times.new stuff to make money so we don't know.it can.happen okay it can happen that they will.grow uh.higher than 12 now we have the worst.case scenario so let's take a look at.how it is and the worst case scenario.tells that.the growth is gonna flatten even more.20 23 25 9 25.28 7 and same requirements over there.and that will gives us a fair price.today of 109.5.dollars per share we take an average of.these.three scenarios the biggest likelihood.in my opinion is the normal case.scenario and.124.6 125.basically very very near to the price.that we have today in the stock market.because the stock is now trading uh very.near 127.so it is at the fair price after that.price.upgrade because of fundamentals okay so.new processor.new stuff and some said in the comment.uh.what is the effect of the new processor.where is that one.previous fair price was near 90.per share and now in 126 125.so that's the effect and what happened.as i showed you before is that instead.of continue.with this flat line we have had boom.it's like when you go upstairs okay and.you do you take another step so a step.up and then probably.is gonna continue to go a little bit.more.flat over the next few years like we.have seen.here now i'm gonna continue to hold my.shares i think they're.apple it's a wonderful business in terms.of if you want to have.a big stock in your portfolio just to.not worry too much that it's gonna go.bankrupt.the day later however guys if you're.looking for.a really extreme growth and this is not.the stock for you.okay this is gonna probably become in my.opinion.even more of a dividend stock it already.is.actually but i think that in the long.term they are going to.try to benefit shareholders.even more with dividends okay so.obviously if you want a 30 35.revenue growth rate year over year apple.is not for you but.now you have the fair price so it is.your call.just take your decisions guys so uh this.is the end of the video i hope you find.it interesting and leave me a like.if you like the video leave me a comment.below tell me uh do you.own apple are you planning to sell or.buy more what are you gonna do with that.and subscribe to the channel and as.always guys have a wonderful day.

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